DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 10/1/20

DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 10/1/20

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Pitchers

Clayton KershawClayton Kershaw FD 9800 DK 9400
Opponent - MIL (Brandon Woodruff) Park - MIL
FD - 33.83 DK - 19.06

Pretty convenient for the Dodgers to have a former Cy Young(2011, 2013, 2014), and is in the conversation for another, as your game two starter. He ended up with 10 starts this season, going 6-2, and posted an elite 2.16 ERA/3.05 xFIP and also posted his highest K rate(28.8%) since 2017. He now faces a Brewers team that ranked 23rd in wOBA(.307) and 25th in wRC+(89) and struck out the 3rd most(26.6%) overall. All things considered, Kershaw gives us a high probability for the win in an uncertain playoff environment and also comes with a ton of upside vs. the Brewers. He is my top pitcher in all formats.

Luis CastilloLuis Castillo FD 10200 DK 8600
Opponent - ATL (Ian Anderson) Park - ATL
FD - 34.93 DK - 18.26
Ian AndersonIan Anderson FD 9200 DK 7500
Opponent - CIN (Luis Castillo) Park - CIN
FD - 38.87 DK - 20.7

After watching the offenses combine for a whopping 37 strikeouts(40%) in game one, I feel both these pitchers are in play in game two. Let's start with Ian Anderson and the Braves who are -133 favorites in game two after taking game one 1-0 in extra innings. Despite a small sample size, Anderson was very impressive in his rookie season considering he is still 22-years-old. He held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in five of his six starts for a very impressive 1.95 ERA and he also recorded a 29% K rate. Even if the win isn't there, I think there is enough K's for him to pay off his price.

On the other side of the game, we have Luis Castillo who was a little unlucky with the record(4-6) considering he posted a 3.21 ERA and even better 2.82 xFIP over 12 starts. Castillo was also dominant vs. righties holding them to a .221 average with a 35% K rate and the Braves appear to be running out at least six today. I lean Anderson for the savings in cash games but love the upside with Castillo here for GPP's.

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Catcher/First Base

Yasmani GrandalYasmani Grandal FD - C 3000 DK - 1B/C 4200
Opponent - OAK (Undecided) Park - OAK
FD - 9.54 DK - 7.08

The A's manager, Bob Melvin, is keeping his game three starter quiet at this point with both Sean Manaea and Miek Fiers available with a chance of both of them getting run in this one. Either way, I am the White Sox bats and while Grandal comes to use in the catcher position, he is most definitely in play on both sites. While the average(.230) doesn't jump off the page, he was productive this season with a 117 wRC+ and hits third in this powerful lineup. As a switch-hitter, his ideal matchup would be against Manaea as he was much better against lefties this season with a.382 wOBA and 147 wRC+ in the split.

Eric HosmerEric Hosmer FD 3300 DK 5200
Opponent - STL (Adam Wainwright) Park - STL
FD - 10.26 DK - 7.84

The top Padres bats are a little tough to fit and I prefer the White Sox a bit more which has me targeting the second-tier bats and it starts with Eric Hosmer. First of all, he gets the pleasure of hitting cleanup behind MVP-candidates Tatis and Hosmer which in itself brings a ton of value. While he went 0 for 4 in game one yesterday, he did have multiple hard-hit balls and came into the playoffs with multiple hits in three of his final four games.

Second Base

Jake CronenworthJake Cronenworth FD 2800 DK 5100
Opponent - STL (Adam Wainwright) Park - STL
FD - 8.16 DK - 6.34

Second base is a tough position today so I will go back to the second tier plays for the Padres. Despite a terrible September(.183 average), Cronenworth finished up his rookie season hitting .285 with a .356 wOBA and 125 wRC+.  He hits down in the order which makes the play tougher on DraftKings where the price is much higher relative to the cap but with so many teams eliminated yesterday the options are limited putting Cronenworth at the top of the list.

After Cronenworth is where it gets muddy today. The top option, Ozzie Albies, has a tough matchup and is GPP only. I don't mind punting Kolten Wong who hits leadoff but that is about all there is to get excited about there. Jason Kipnis and Nick Madrigal are two other punt options in play but hitting at the bottom of the lineup lower their value but depending on starting lineups, we may not have a choice. Stay tuned to the projections closer to lock.

Shortstop

Tim AndersonTim Anderson FD - SS 4000 DK - SS 4900
Opponent - OAK (Undecided) Park - OAK
FD - 9.28 DK - 7.23

I mentioned with Grandal above that we don't know who is starting for the A's yet but it really won't sway me away from the White Sox, and especially not Tim Anderson. He comes with a lofty price tag but it is warranted as he is one of the most dynamic players in the league and provides upside in every area. he is arguably the best leadoff hitter in baseball as he not only provides consistency as a batting champion but also a ton of power with 10 home runs in 49 games. He is a player I will be building around today.

Javier BáezJavier Báez FD - SS 3000 DK - SS 4700
Opponent - MIA (Sixto Sánchez) Park - CHC
FD - 11.87 DK - 9.05

On a normal slate, Baez wouldn't even be in the conversation coming off a terrible season(.203 average) but we have just five games today, and it is hard to ignore the price relative to the talent. He was one of only three Cubs hitters to tally a hit in game one and hopefully, that means there is more to come. I won't be going here in cash games but love the PTS/$ upside in GPP formats.

Third Base

Tommy La StellaTommy La Stella FD - 3B 3100 DK - 2B/3B 4800
Opponent - CHW (Undecided) Park - OAK
FD - 9.58 DK - 7.35

From the first pitch on Wednesday, the A's were locked in scoring runs in three of the first four innings and that ended up being all they need as they grabbed game one 5-3 on Wednesday. La Stella was off my radar in a lefty/lefty matchup but is back in my core tonight against rookie Dane Dunning who gave up eight earned runs in his final two starts and three or more earned runs in four of his seven starts on the season. Since coming over in a trade to the A's at the deadline, La Stella has been good hitting .289 with a 123 wRC+ and gets tons of opportunity hitting at the top of the lineup. He is in play in all formats with his best value coming on FanDuel in the sub $3K range.

Matt CarpenterMatt Carpenter FD 2700 DK 4100
Opponent - SD (Zach Davies) Park - SD
FD - 8.61 DK - 6.42

As we have seen throughout the article, the value plays on this slate seem to all come with tons of risk whether a down year, down in the lineup, or just a bad matchup. Carpenter hits on two of these as he spent most of the year hitting in the 6th/7th spot in the lineup and finished below the Mendoza line. The good news is that he showed up in game one with a hit, two RBI, and a walk and for you BvP truthers, he is 12 for 25 with three home runs against Zach Davies. It is worth a shot at these low prices with a lack of options.

Outfield

Ian HappIan Happ FD - OF 3200 DK - OF 4000
Opponent - MIA (Sixto Sánchez) Park - CHC
FD - 11.59 DK - 8.7

Darvish is my favorite play on the Cubs which says a lot considering he is my third favorite pitcher overall. The offense has been inconsistent all year and it showed in game one as they were held to one run. I love Rizzo's price at first base but Happ would be my favorite bat hitting leadoff and was not only their top bat(131 wRC+) on the season but was also responsible for the only Cubs run in game one with a solo shot. With the price plus opportunity, Happ is in play in all formats.

Dylan CarlsonDylan Carlson FD 2200 DK 2900
Opponent - SD (Zach Davies) Park - SD
FD - 1.04 DK - 0.8

Despite struggling in his rookie season hitting just .200 over 119 at-bats, Carlson got the nod as the cleanup hitter in game one. As I write this, he is currently 2 for 2 with two walks and two runs scored which has already obliterated value on both sites on Wednesday. The Cards have one of the more favorable matchups today and as long as Carlson remains in this price tier and in the cleanup spot, he will be a core play for me in all formats.

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DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 10/1/20