Fire Weather and Monsoon Moisture in the Southwest

The Monsoon season has been extremely active over New Mexico, southern Colorado, and eastern Arizona in the last few weeks. While additional moisture will be expected this week, the story is really of the haves and the have-nots of rainfall and the increased fire threat for some across the Four Corners.

Monsoon Moisture

New Mexico has seen a very wet June with the potential of heavy rain continuing today.

The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted the potential for excessive rainfall over the next few days as additional moisture streams up in monsoonal flow. Due to the ground being relatively saturated from early rain this week, additional rainfall with lead to flooding concerns. Darker green colors indicate higher chances for flooding.

A flood watch has been issued around the burn scar areas near Grizzly Creek in Colorado. Monsoon thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rain which could produce flooding in the burn areas.

Additional rainfall will be expected through mid to late week. This added precipitation will continue to slowly chip away at the drought conditions!

The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the Four Corner region for general thunderstorms today. Occasional strong storms with gusty winds are possible, but the organized severe weather risk remains low.


Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be diurnally driven. This means that showers and thunderstorms will fire up in the heat of the day and then die down shortly after sundown.

The next few days will be a rinse and repeat cycle in terms of timing and potential for rainfall.

Fire Threat

Unfortunately, many areas of the Southwest have not seen the beneficial monsoonal flow and are left dry with the fire threat. The SPC has highlighted the risk of fire danger in Nevada and Utah over the next couple of days.

The extended outlook from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) shows good confidence in dry time across the Great Basin region, which will increase the fire threat further, but more wet conditions around the Four Corners from the Monsoon winds.

Please remember to take precautions with fireworks!

For more on the monsoon season and fire danger, join WeatherNation for the Western Regional forecast at :50 past the hour.

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Fire Weather and Monsoon Moisture in the Southwest