Fire Weather and Monsoon Moisture in the Southwest
The Monsoon season has been extremely active over New Mexico, southern Colorado, and eastern Arizona in the last few weeks. While additional moisture will be expected this week, the story is really of the haves and the have-nots of rainfall and the increased fire threat for some across the Four Corners.
Storms are expected to bring additional heavy rain, mainly along and east of the Rockies. Up to an additional 2″ may be possible through this week.
The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted the potential for excessive rainfall over the next few days as additional moisture streams up in monsoonal flow. There are burn scars and desert soils that don’t do well with heavy rain.
The Storm Prediction Center is highlighting the Four Corners region for isolated thunderstorms today (general risk, light green below).
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be diurnally driven. This means that showers and thunderstorms will fire up in the heat of the day and then die down shortly after sundown.
The next few days will feature the same monsoonal flow bringing afternoon storms.
Unfortunately, many areas of the Southwest have not seen the beneficial monsoonal flow and are left dry with the fire threat. The SPC has highlighted the risk of fire danger in Nevada and Utah over the next couple of days.
The extended outlook from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) shows good confidence in dry time across the Great Basin region, which will increase the fire threat further, but more wet conditions around the Four Corners from the Monsoon winds.
For more on the monsoon season and fire danger, join WeatherNation for the Western Regional forecast at :50 past the hour.
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