Heavy Rain to Impact the SW Today

This weekend has brought beneficial rain to the Desert Southwest, and we have even more of it coming through the middle of this week. While widespread rainfall is awesome for the drought conditions, it can lead to the threat of mudslides, debris flows and flash flooding, especially near recent area burn scars in the Southwest.

Flood Threat

An Areal Flood Watch is in effect for most of New Mexico for the concern of flooding as 1-3″ of rainfall are anticipated. Ongoing rainfall, especially over burn scar locations, is a concern. Debris flow and mudslides are possible hazards.

Our forecast model hints at over 3″ of rain in these areas – detrimental to the soils.

The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted the potential for excessive rainfall for the next three days from the Mexico border up into northern Colorado on a level 2 out of 4 threat each day.


Heavy rain will be the focus today through New Mexico and west Texas. While the moisture is welcomed, it will lead to additional concerns for burn scar flooding.

Our forecast model keeps storms going well into Wednesday morning. Due to the nighttime nature of these storms, flash flooding may catch you off-guard. Please have a way to get alerts especially if you live near a recent burn scar.

By Wednesday morning much of the rain will be winding down, but we will still have pockets of steady moisture through New Mexico and Colorado through midday Wednesday.

Expect a rinse and repeat type of forecast throughout the next few days. Daily storms will be at their strongest through the late afternoon and early evening hours before dying down overnight.

While Wednesday brings another chance for showers and storms, they don’t look to be as widespread compared to Tuesday. Most of the storm focus will be through Kansas along a stalled boundary.

Severe Threat

Thankfully thunderstorms look to be on the sub-severe side for most; the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has highlighted the risk for general thunderstorms across the Four Corner region over the next few days.

The West desperately needs this moisture – extreme and exceptional drought conditions are being felt across the majority of southwest states right now. The drought should improve some with the added moisture from this year’s monsoon.

For more on the monsoon season and rain potential, join WeatherNation for the Western Regional forecast at :50 past the hour.

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Heavy Rain to Impact the SW Today