Monsoon Season Underway for the 4 Corners

Monsoon season officially began on June 15! The Monsoon is a change in wind direction, that ushers in both Gulf and Pacific moisture, typically firing up storms for parts of the desert southwest. It can be crucial for improving drought conditions, but comes with a risk; thunderstorms bring lightning, heightening the risk for more fire starts.

Outlooks

In our immediate future, storms will develop for the weekend. As a result, the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted the potential for excessive rainfall every day this weekend from the Mexico border up into southern Wyoming.

There is high confidence there will be above average precipitation through the end of the month as a result of the monsoon season though!

Thankfully none of these storms look to be on the stronger or severe side. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has highlighted the risk for general thunderstorms the next few days.

Forecast

You can expect a rinse and repeat kind of forecast throughout the next few days, but Saturday does look to be our wettest for the southern Four Corners.

Storms will be at their strongest through the late afternoon and early evening hours before dying down overnight. Still, heavy rain may persist through the first part of the overnight hours leading to a flash flood threat.

Sunday’s rainfall will be concentrated in a plume over New Mexico and southern Colorado where steady rain will lead to the concern of flash flooding over the Hermits Peak and Black Fire burn scars in New Mexico.

Farther north into Colorado we will be concerned over burn scars from recent years. If you live near a recent burn, please have ways to get flash flood alerts.

The heavy rain will be a concern over local area burn scars, where the soil is not held well into the ground. We anticipate the threat of flash flooding and landslides.

Seasonal Forecast

The monsoon season is just getting started and with that we do anticipate an active monsoon for Arizona and New Mexico. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has highlighted the above average rainfall and monsoon pattern or the rest of the summer months in the desert southwest.

We can desperately use this moisture – extreme and exceptional drought conditions are being felt across the majority of southwest states right now. The drought should improve some with the added moisture from this year’s monsoon.

For more on the monsoon season and rain potential, join WeatherNation for your western regional forecast at :50 past the hour.

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Monsoon Season Underway for the 4 Corners