Monsoon Season Underway for the 4 Corners

Monsoon season officially began on June 15! The Monsoon is a change in wind direction that ushers in both Gulf and Pacific moisture, typically firing up storms in the desert southwest. This season is crucial for improving drought conditions, however, it comes with some risks; thunderstorms bring lightning, heightening the risk for more fire starts and heavy rain leads to flooding concerns.

Outlooks

In the immediate future, storms will develop for the next several days. As a result, the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted the potential for excessive rainfall for the next three days from the Mexico border up into northern Colorado.

In addition, there is high confidence that there will be above average precipitation through the end of the month as a result of the monsoon season!

Thankfully general thunderstorms look to be on the sub-severe side for most, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has highlighted the risk for general thunderstorms across the Four Corner region over the next few days.

Forecast

Expect a rinse and repeat type of forecast throughout the next few days. Some severe thunderstorms will be likely Sunday afternoon, for more information click here. Otherwise, daily storms will be at their strongest through the late afternoon and early evening hours before dying down overnight. Heavy rain may persist through the first part of the overnight hours leading to a flash flood threat.

Sunday’s rainfall will be concentrated in a plume over New Mexico and southern Colorado where steady rain will lead to the concern of flash flooding over the Hermits Peak and Black Fire burn scars in New Mexico.

Farther north into Colorado we will be concerned over burn scars from recent years.

Rain Totals

The heavy rain will be a concern over local area burn scars, where the soil is not held well into the ground. Therefore, threat of flash flooding and landslides are anticipated.

The west desperately needs this moisture – extreme and exceptional drought conditions are being felt across the majority of southwest states right now. The drought should improve some with the added moisture from this year’s monsoon.

For more on the monsoon season and rain potential, join WeatherNation for the Western Regional forecast at :50 past the hour.

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Monsoon Season Underway for the 4 Corners