Severe Storms Once Again for the Northern Plains
We are starting to sound like a broken record the past few months will all of the severe activity we have been talking about in the High Plains. Strong thunderstorms are in the forecast through Sunday along a couple frontal boundaries of note. We have a severe thunderstorm watch (ABOVE) in effect tonight for damaging winds and hail.
The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a slight risk (level 2, on a scale of 1 to 5) for severe thunderstorms on Friday for the Black Hills of South Dakota where terrain influences will allow for a few storms to develop on Friday afternoon in a hot and humid environment. The main threat with these storms will be occasional severe wind gusts through Saturday morning.
Showers and storms will first initialize along the higher terrain of the Rockies and Mountains in Wyoming and Colorado for the severe threat across Nebraska and South Dakota.
Things really intensify around dinnertime on Friday with gusty winds and hail for the Black Hills. Those storms will continue after dark. Additionally we will be seeing monsoonal moisture contribute to heavy rain in eastern Colorado along the frontal boundary too!
We will see most severe weather subside late Friday night, but areas of heavy rain will be a focus through the I29 and I35 corridors of Kansas and Missouri on Friday night and into early Saturday morning.
Heavy rain will be ongoing through I29 Saturday morning. Although most of these storms will just be rain and lightning makers, we can’t rule out an isolated severe threat. Please be aware of the flood threat within these storms – it can be more dangerous as severe weather.
Even though we will be seeing areas of heavy rainfall on Saturday morning through parts of the Central Plains, we will be focusing on the risk of severe weather in the Northern Plains on Saturday. There will also be an area of severe weather potential through the northern Rockies on Saturday afternoon that sets up the severe threat into Sunday.
Storms develop along an area cold front by mid-afternoon in the northern Rockies. For the high plains, individual cells leading to the concern of damaging winds and hail along with an isolated tornado threat will try to form along the warm front.
With the heat of the day, we will see strong storms use the higher terrain to develop, especially in the Black Hills around the warm front (red). We will also be looking at North Dakota for individual storm cells that pose the risk of rotation and tornadic development.
A complex of gusty wind and heavy rain will be our focus late Saturday night through North Dakota. Meanwhile, ongoing showes and a few severe storms will be possible into the Northern Rockies.
You guessed it, more severe weather on Sunday, with the focus once again being through the Northern Rockies and High Plains along the extensive front and area of low pressure.
Sunshine from the day will help storms to develop by early afternoon. High terrain influences will also support storm development in the Rockies.
Our strongest storms look to be around the I29 corridor of North Dakota with all modes of severe weather possible. There will also be a complex of storms through central Nebraska with damaging hail possible. On the stationary boundary (red and blue line) we have the potential for heavy rain and a few stronger storms along I94 in North Dakota.
With multiple days of storms we will see locally heavy rain, but Sunday will be our rainiest day. That is why the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has highlighted the risk for excessive rainfall through the I29 corridor.
We also have flood alerts into the Pacific Northwest due to heavy rain anticipated in these areas this weekend. Keep this in mind if you’re hitting the high country – Rivers will be running high.
For more on this weather headline be sure to join us live on WeatherNation and :30 past the hour during your central regional forecast.