5 min read
Rising Probability For A Second Payroll Minus (and its implications)
Revolving consumer credit declined again in November 2020, according to data released by the Federal Reserve last week. Though the monthly
Tag : Continued Jobless Claims
5 min read
6 min read
Inflation Hysteria #2 (Slack-edotes)
Macroeconomic slack is such an easy, intuitive concept that only Economists and central bankers (same thing) could possibly mess it up. But mess it
5 min read
Weeks of Weak Claims On Growing Claims of Weeks of Weak Demand
At some point, the thing actually has to happen. You can only keep talking about the thing for so long before people start to get wise. And most
8 min read
Humpty Dumpty Dives the Depths Of the Second Labor Pool
An “unexpectedly” cool summer that will certainly turn up the heat as the global economy’s winter stubbornly refuses to thaw. We keep getting
6 min read
No, No, How Can It Be This Barely Qualifies As A Market Fluctuation?
The molehills get even smaller simply because there’s never any mountains. The conventional view, no surprise, is looking at this situation exactly
6 min read
It Just Isn’t Enough
The Department of Labor attached a technical note to its weekly report on unemployment claims. The state of California has announced that it is
6 min read
‘Remains Structurally Unsound’
Does anyone remember “transitory?” I know I do. I spent years ridiculing the idea. But after 2019’s interest rate debacle, cuts rather than
7 min read
Unfortunately Like Old Times: Back To Being The Star of the Payroll Show
The star of the show once again was the unemployment rate. Since the ratio is a byproduct of the Household Survey, not the Establishment Survey, that
7 min read
Vague Inflation Promises Vs. Ongoing Labor Market Destruction
Why the big deal about the Fed’s new grand strategy? For one thing, as noted yesterday, there’s that whole lost decade which policymakers finally
8 min read
More Uncovered, The Monster Belying Monster Jobs Numbers
I’ve always disliked the ritual of Payroll Friday because that’s what it is. The BLS doesn’t even measure the change in payrolls, for crying
5 min read
Momentum Lost? Private Income Corroborates Possibility Presented By Claims
Entering 2020, before overreactions to COVID and the shutdown they brought, private income derived from all sources had slowed to the lowest rate
5 min read
Revolving Claims Labor Market Destruction
Jobless claims are not a BLS statistic, which is one key reason why we might not expect perfect consistency with the major payroll reports at times.
7 min read
There Was Never Going To Be A ‘V’ Because The Bowl Was Always Empty
What was stupidest about the past few months was how it was these guys who everyone was depending upon to make it all go just perfectly moving